Your projection is Fairly's estimate of what your home can realistically earn over the next twelve months, based on how comparable properties in your market are actually performing. It's the number we measure ourselves against — our job is to beat it.
This article explains what's behind that number, how to read it, and how you (or your advisor) can refine it.
Where to find it
Open the Fairly app and go to Performance > Projections. You'll see a monthly breakdown of expected revenue, the set of comparable listings ("comps") that informs it, and tools to adjust them.
What a projection actually is
A projection answers the question every owner asks before signing on with a manager: What will I make?
To answer it, we build a set of real, currently active short-term rental listings in your market that resemble your home in size, type, location, and amenities. Then we pull the trailing twelve months of performance data from those comps — average daily rate (ADR), occupancy, and estimated revenue — and aggregate them into a month-by-month picture of what a property like yours is earning right now.
A few things worth knowing:
Every home has one active projection at a time. If you don't have one when your home goes live with Fairly, we generate one automatically.
The projection reflects the market baseline — what a comparable home is earning on average. Fairly's goal is to outperform it through smarter pricing, availability management, and guest experience.
Because it's a baseline rather than a ceiling, falling short of the projection is a meaningful signal. It's the trigger for us to dig in and figure out what's getting in the way.
How we choose the comps
Your projection is built from homes that are similar to yours — same general area, comparable size, and a similar mix of features and amenities. We use an AI model to evaluate each candidate and select the ones that are the closest match, then base your projection on how those homes have actually performed over the past twelve months.
How to read and edit your projection
Your projection isn't static. You and your advisor can refine the comp set, and the projection recalculates immediately when you do.
In the map and table view, each comp shows its similarity score so you can see how well it matches your property. Every comp sits in one of these states:
AI-Recommended — the default. Our model selected it and you haven't touched it.
Always Include (Pinned) — you've manually confirmed this comp belongs. It won't be removed when the model refreshes.
Exclude — you've removed it. It won't come back, even if a future model run would have recommended it.
User Added — you added it by listing ID, but haven't pinned it yet.
You can also override the monthly occupancy assumptions — for example, if you plan to use your home yourself during certain months and want the projection to reflect that.
A note for advisors: changes you make on behalf of an owner take effect immediately and are visible to the owner. There's one shared projection per home.
A light touch usually works best. Pinning a few high-confidence comps and excluding obvious mismatches is helpful. Pinning or excluding dozens of comps tends to mean something else is off — usually that the listing itself (description, amenities, photos) needs to be tightened up so the model produces better matches in the first place.
Sharing your projection
Your projection has its own shareable link. Open the projection in Fairly and copy the link to send to anyone — a co-owner, an agent, a family member, or a friend you're talking through the numbers with. Anyone with the link can view the projection in their browser without signing in or creating a Fairly account.
You can also print your projection. The printed version includes a QR code that opens the live projection on Fairly, so whoever you hand it to can pull up the latest version on their phone — useful for in-person conversations, mailings, or leaving a copy with a prospective co-host or property manager.
A couple of things to keep in mind:
The shared link always shows the current state of the projection. If you edit comps or update assumptions, anyone who opens the link afterward will see the updated version.
Viewing through the link is read-only. Editing still requires signing in as the owner or advisor.
FAQ
How often does the projection update? It recalculates immediately when you add, pin, or exclude a comp, or adjust occupancy assumptions.
Can I have more than one projection? No — there's one active projection per home. Edits update that single projection.
My projection looks too high (or too low). What should I do? Open the comp list and look for mismatches — a comp in a different neighborhood, a different property class, or with very different amenities. Exclude the ones that don't fit, and pin the ones that clearly do. If the comp set still feels wrong, check that your listing details in Fairly are complete.
Can my advisor edit my projection? Yes. Both you and your Fairly advisor can edit the same projection, and changes are visible to both sides.
Can I share my projection with someone else? Yes. Every projection has a shareable link that anyone can open in a browser without signing in, and you can print a version that includes a QR code linking back to the live projection on Fairly.
Is the projection a guarantee? No. It's a market-calibrated estimate of what a home like yours is currently earning. Actual revenue depends on pricing, availability, seasonality, guest experience, and other factors — many of which Fairly works to optimize on your behalf.